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No fantasy manager should rigidly classify any player as a "must-have," but entering your draft with a short list of names is wise.
While it's probably impossible for you to get them all, building your draft around selecting at least a few of the seven players on this list can significantly increase your odds of achieving fantasy glory this season.
More in this series
- Breakouts to target
- Sleepers to steal
- Busts to avoid
- Super-deep sleepers
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys
Prescott is coming off an outstanding campaign in which he led the league in passing touchdowns (36) and completions (410) while finishing top five in passing yards (4,516) and attempts (590). He even topped all full-time starters in Next Gen Stats' completion percentage above expectation.
It was also great to see him running the ball a little more after he was held under 200 rushing yards for three straight years following a serious ankle injury in 2020.
Perhaps that's why the fantasy community seemed to panic when photos of Prescott in a walking boot emerged this summer. Thankfully, it was a precautionary move and won't impact him this season.
Negotiations continue on potential long-term deals for Prescott and star wideout CeeDee Lamb, which should motivate both to perform at the highest level in 2024.
As we witnessed last year, the duo can be difference-makers in fantasy. Lamb finished second in fantasy points per game among receivers in 2023, while Prescott placed fifth among quarterbacks.
However, the Cowboys took a few weeks to discover their identity last season, and both players led their positions in fantasy scoring from Week 6 onward. That's not as surprising a development for a former first-round pick like Lamb, but it was a big deal for Prescott since he doesn't offer the same kind of rushing upside as other top fantasy QBs.
Though it's disappointing that Dallas didn't add any playmakers to the offense this offseason, the team's returning a similar supporting cast. That group includes Lamb, the always underrated Brandin Cooks, tight end Jake Ferguson, and a collection of young wideouts vying for the No. 3 receiver job led by Jalen Tolbert.
Prescott has been going off the board as the QB9 in July drafts, around the end of the eighth or into the ninth round. That's incredible value for a player who proved he has QB1 upside for most of 2023.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
Injuries and contract issues contributed to Taylor missing seven games last season and caused him to play part-time snaps in a few other outings.
But don't let his depressed year-end totals shy you away from a potentially elite back who's available in the second round of fantasy drafts.
After sitting out the first month and being brought back slowly in Weeks 5 and 6, Taylor averaged the third most fppg among running backs over the final 12 weeks of the regular season.
This is a player who was the RB10 as a rookie in 2020 and the RB2 in 2021 before an injury-plagued 2022 campaign. The 25-year-old has shown he can be a high-end fantasy producer, and the Colts' offense is setting up to be one of the most exciting attacks in the league this year.
Head coach Shane Steichen's high-volume scheme helped Indy field a fast-paced offense in neutral situation pace of play during one-score games in 2023, according to FTN Fantasy. With the return of a healthy Anthony Richardson, the offense should maintain that speed while being even more dangerous moving forward.
Meanwhile, Taylor has little competition for touches, with Trey Sermon, Evan Hull, and Tyler Goodson filling out the RB depth chart.
Be prepared for a bounce-back season from Taylor as a bell cow in an offense fantasy managers will wish they had invested more in.
James Conner, RB, Cardinals
One of my biggest regrets after the 2023 fantasy season was not drafting Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane and locking down Miami's backfield, which we knew would be a productive position. Both players were available outside the top-100 picks in ADP last year, removing almost all risk in drafting the Dolphins' duo.
This year, we'll take advantage of a similar flaw in ADP to draft Conner in the eighth round and his rookie backup Trey Benson in the ninth or 10th.
The argument for Conner is easy, and I made it in this space last year. When he's been healthy, the 29-year-old has delivered top-10 fantasy stats on a per-game basis each of the previous three years since arriving in Arizona. He's also tied with the fourth-most total touchdowns among running backs during that span.
Conner has missed four games each of the past two seasons, justifying concerns about his durability. But when active, there's no denying his impact as an RB1 in fantasy lineups.
The Cardinals should also be a much better offense in 2024, with a healthy Kyler Murray, a top-tier rookie receiver in Marvin Harrison Jr., and tight end Trey McBride coming off a breakout campaign.
Benson's presence is more about finding a long-term replacement for Conner in 2025 and beyond while giving the team an insurance policy in case the veteran misses games.
If you spend the first seven rounds filling out the rest of your starting lineup, you can easily spend two of your next three picks securing Conner and Benson and guaranteeing yourself the Cardinals lead back all campaign.
Garrett Wilson, WR, Jets
The first receiver on this list can be reserved for whichever first-round fantasy wideout you prefer.
If you're picking in the top half of the round, CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are all excellent choices. A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Wilson are solid options in the back half of the opening frame.
I'll highlight Wilson since he's on the verge of joining the elite players at his position, a leap that was delayed by Aaron Rodgers' Achilles tear last September.
Even with some of the worst QB play in the league, Wilson still posted over 80 catches and over 1,000 yards each of the past two seasons. He's also shown an ability to be a high-volume earner, ranking fourth over the last two years in total targets (315) behind Lamb, Hill, and Davante Adams.
If you want an idea of how much Wilson's numbers could rise with even slightly better passing in New York, look no further than the eight 2022 contests in which Joe Flacco or Mike White started. Wilson averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game in those matchups, which would've put him as the WR7 for the year.
Matt Harmon's reception perception profile of Wilson was nearly all green, an excellent sign of incoming success. Also, reports out of practices with Rodgers have been glowing, only increasing the excitement for what this tandem could do together.
Even though the 40-year-old Rodgers is on the backside of his career and coming off a serious injury, he still represents a massive improvement that should propel Wilson to reach superstardom.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks
Metcalf's fantasy numbers have dipped since his monster 1,303-yard, 10-touchdown season in 2020 when he finished as the WR8 in fppg. Over the last three years, he's been the WR21, WR27, and WR20 in a Seahawks offense criticized for being too conservative.
Fortunately, the arrival of a new coaching staff - including offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb - will help unlock this passing game while featuring the star wideout.
Grubb spearheaded a prolific Washington Huskies offense in recent years, and the Seahawks' receivers have already noticed the differences his scheme offers. Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba spoke about how excited they are to have the ball pushed downfield with a more explosive approach.
Meanwhile, head coach Mike Macdonald has outlined his hopes for Metcalf, suggesting the team will move him around the formation and make it difficult for defenses to focus on him.
"We want to get him the ball as much as possible, for sure," was Macdonald's main message during an NFL Network interview.
Few players have shown the consistent stat lines Metcalf compiled over the last five seasons, with 900-plus receiving yards and at least six touchdowns every year.
With Grubb bringing a more modern and vertical passing offense to Seattle, fantasy managers should expect a spike year from Metcalf, who's being drafted as the WR19 in the third round.
George Pickens, WR, Steelers
Pickens is getting a QB upgrade like Garrett Wilson and a coordinator upgrade like DK Metcalf.
Russell Wilson might not be the same player he was early in his career in Seattle, but he's a much better option for the Steelers than the trio of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. We won't even waste time discussing Pittsburgh's former offensive coordinator Matt Canada.
While the team's new OC, Arthur Smith, has frustrated fantasy managers in the past, a lot of his troubles in Atlanta can be attributed to the debilitating quarterback play of Desmond Ridder and others. With a veteran like Wilson at the helm, Smith should have success the way he did with Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee when A.J. Brown excelled.
Pickens followed up a decent rookie year with 52 catches, 801 yards, and four TDs (WR49 in fppg), with a sophom*ore jump that led to 63 catches, 1,140 yards, and five scores (WR33 in fppg).
However, in addition to the changes at QB and OC, the receiving corps lost Diontae Johnson, and the contenders to replace him aren't exactly moving the needle (Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin III, Quez Watkins). Tight end Pat Freiermuth might end up as the Steelers' No. 2 pass-catcher this season.
That sets Pickens up for a major target share and gives him a legitimate chance to return top-24 fantasy numbers in his third campaign. With a fourth-round ADP as the WR27 off the board, the 23-year-old is an easy upside pick.
George Kittle, TE, 49ers
The plan going into your fantasy draft should be to come away with one of the top-seven tight ends. Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts, and Kittle round out that group.
Kincaid and Pitts ended up on most of my fantasy teams this year, given the changes in their offenses and the price tag in the fifth or sometimes sixth round. But the surprise has been Kittle falling to the sixth or sometimes seventh frame, making him an even better value.
The 30-year-old finished as a top-five fantasy tight end for six consecutive years. And he's kept it up while sharing the field with guys like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel.
It seems unlikely the 49ers will grant Aiyuk's reported trade request this season, but Kittle's projection will rise even higher if the Niners move the receiver or if one of their skill-position starters gets injured.
If you're concerned about the core muscle surgery he underwent at the beginning of the offseason that caused him to lose 30 pounds, just know that Kittle isn't worried. In June, he said he felt fantastic and was almost back to 100%.
One of the best predictors of fantasy success is past production. As long as you can live with Kittle's boom-or-bust nature, there's no reason he should fall to the sixth round or later.
More in this series
- Breakouts to target
- Sleepers to steal
- Busts to avoid
- Super-deep sleepers
